FiveThirtyEight: The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages - Why You Can’t Trust Your Gut
/via @FiveThirtyEight
By NATE SILVER
Part I
I spend a lot of time thinking about uncertainty. The key difference in Pecota, the forecasting system that I developed eight years ago to predict the performance of baseball players, was not that it did better than its competition, on average (it did in most years, but only by a tiny bit). Rather, it was that it looked at the uncertainty in the forecast as a feature rather than a bug.
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